Financing · Metric

Consumer loan arrears are grinding upward

Beneath the mortgage book sits a second layer of household credit — auto loans, credit cards, and instalment loans — and it is where repayment stress is showing first. On the Bank of Canada's rates of loans in arrears (%), by product type, all three categories are now at or near the highest readings in the available series. Instalment loans are the most distressed, having nearly tripled from 0.92% in late 2015 to 2.64% in late 2025; auto and credit-card arrears each sit at series highs.

Arrears rates are the upstream signal of household-credit distress. A loan counted as 90+ days past due is well down the path toward charge-off or repossession, but the rate itself moves before those terminal events register — which is why it is the cleaner gauge of stress than any count of repossessions, of which Canada in any case keeps no national tally. The Bank of Canada's product-type series, built on TransUnion's loan-level data, lets us watch three distinct consumer-credit markets move at once. Through the 2024–2026 period they are moving in the same direction: up. The companion Mortgage delinquencies and Household debt metrics cover the secured and aggregate-leverage sides of the same household balance sheet.

Instalment loans, 2025-Q4
2.64%
The most distressed category — up from 0.92% in 2015-Q4, an increase of nearly 3×, with the climb accelerating since 2023.
Auto loans, 2025-Q4
0.67%
At the series high (peaked 0.68%), up ~72% from the 0.39% pandemic low in 2021 — but flat over the last three quarters.
Credit cards, 2025-Q4
0.78%
A new series high, completing a sharp pandemic V that bottomed near 0.45% in 2020–21.

Three consumer-credit markets, one direction

Each product type is shown on its own scale so its trajectory reads clearly: the auto-loan plateau of the last year, the deep pandemic V and full recovery in credit cards, and the relentless, accelerating climb in instalment loans. The levels are not comparable across panels — instalment-loan arrears run roughly four times the auto-loan rate — but the direction is shared: all three are at or near their highest readings in the series.

Why these three move differently. Auto and instalment loans are amortising, secured-or-structured debt with fixed payments; credit cards are revolving and the most sensitive to short-term cash-flow squeezes, which is why their arrears rate swung most sharply through the pandemic. Instalment loans — a category that includes unsecured personal loans and point-of-sale financing — carry the highest arrears rate throughout and are the clearest expression of strain among lower-buffer borrowers.

Auto loans
Credit cards
Instalment loans

Source: Bank of Canada Financial Stability Indicators — Household credit performance (TransUnion & BoC calculations). Each panel is scaled to its own range; the vertical axes are not comparable across panels. Quarterly, 2015-Q4 to 2025-Q4.

Reading the shapes. Auto loans rose steadily off their 2021 trough but have gone flat at ~0.67% for three quarters — a plateau, not yet a turn. Credit cards trace the cleanest cycle: a pre-pandemic drift up to 0.75%, a collapse to ~0.45% as payment-deferral programs and stimulus suppressed defaults in 2020–21, then a full recovery to a 0.78% high. Instalment loans show no cycle at all — just a long climb that has steepened since 2023, with no sign of levelling.

Findings

Finding 1

Instalment loans are the most distressed category — and accelerating

Instalment-loan arrears have risen from 0.92% in 2015-Q4 to 2.64% in 2025-Q4 — nearly a tripling — and the climb has steepened since 2023, with no sign of a plateau. They run roughly four times the auto-loan rate throughout the series.

Finding 2

Auto-loan arrears sit at a series high but have gone flat

At 0.67% in 2025-Q4 (just below the 0.68% series peak), auto arrears are up ~72% from their 0.39% pandemic low in 2021. The rate has held flat at ~0.67% for the last three quarters — a plateau rather than a clear turn.

Finding 3

Credit cards trace the sharpest pandemic V — now at a high

Card arrears fell sharply to ~0.45% in 2020–21 as deferrals and stimulus suppressed defaults, then recovered fully to a series-high 0.78% by 2025-Q4. The 2019-Q4 → 2020 leg coincides with a reporting shift and is read with mild caution.

Finding 4

All three markets are pointing the same way

Despite different levels and shapes, every product type ends the series at or near its highest reading. The breadth of the move — secured auto, revolving cards, and unsecured instalment debt rising together — is what makes the signal load-bearing for the financing pillar.

Sources & methodology

Primary sources
Methodology notes
  1. Definition. Arrears rate = the share of loans in a given product class that are 90+ days past due, expressed as a percentage. This is a loan-level measure (count of loans in arrears ÷ count of loans), not balance-weighted. Reported quarterly.
  2. Series coverage. The household-credit-performance series begins in 2015-Q1; the data charted here run 2015-Q4 to 2025-Q4 (41 quarterly points per series). No public Canadian auto-arrears series extends meaningfully further back, so "series high" means highest within this window and the data cannot speak to the longer historical record.
  3. Arrears ≠ repossession. Arrears is the upstream signal; repossession is a distinct, later event. Canada keeps no national repossession count, so this series is the best available proxy for downstream loss pressure — but it does not measure repossessions.
  4. Not interchangeable with Equifax delinquency rates. The BoC/TransUnion arrears rate (loan-level, 90+ days) uses a different denominator from Equifax's "delinquency rate," which is often borrower-level or balance-based. The two sources should not be stacked, spliced, or compared as if measuring the same thing.
  5. Credit-card reporting shift. The 2019-Q4 → 2020 movement in the credit-card series coincides with a reporting change and should be read with mild caution. The auto and instalment series are cleaner through that window.
  6. Cross-country comparison. No harmonised G7 peer series exists on this exact loan-level, product-type basis, so this metric is presented as a Canada time series rather than an international ranking.
  7. Companion dataset. Financing_Consumer-Loan-Arrears_Data.xlsx contains all three quarterly series in editable form, with source notes.
Page last reviewed June 2026 · Data current to Q4 2025 — the latest published by the Bank of Canada