- Defence spending (% of GDP) — military spending as a share of GDP.
- Military personnel — the size of the uniformed force.
Where the headline 2% measures the size of the defence budget, the equipment share measures its quality: you can hit 2% of GDP and still field an ageing, hollow force if the money goes to payroll and upkeep. NATO breaks every ally's budget into four buckets (equipment, personnel, infrastructure, and operations) on the common definition, and the 20% equipment guideline is the modernisation benchmark. The figure is lumpy by nature: a single big procurement of ships or jets can spike a country's share in one year, which is why it reads best as a trend, and why Poland, recapitalising its whole force at once, sits near 56%.
Ranked by equipment share, with the 20% guideline marked. Canada lands near the bottom: it now meets the floor, but the modernising allies (Poland, Finland, Hungary, Lithuania) devote roughly twice as much of their budgets to new capability. Step through the years to see how lumpy procurement makes the ranking move.
Canada's equipment share sat between 10.5% and 19.6% for eleven years, never reaching the 20% guideline, before the 2025 estimate lifts it to 21.97% and the 2026 estimate to 25.0%. Those are the first two years the country has crossed the line.
The flip side of a low equipment share is a budget weighted toward running the force rather than re-equipping it. Personnel was Canada's largest category every year to the 2025 estimate, with operations and maintenance second, and the two are level at 36.0% in the 2026 estimate; equipment was the smallest major slice every year until the 2025 estimate, when its rise and a falling personnel share began to rebalance the mix.
Canada's equipment share hit 21.97% in the 2025 estimate and 25.0% in 2026, after eleven straight years below the guideline (a 10.5–19.6% range across 2014–2024). Like the 2% spending target, it is a line crossed only in the latest year.
At 25.0% on the 2026 estimate, Canada ranks 28th of 31, above only Italy (24.5%), Croatia (23.4%) and Norway (18.0%). It held the same 28th place in 2025. The modernisers spend roughly twice as much: Poland 55.9%, Albania 52.6%, Luxembourg 51.8%, Lithuania 46%, Hungary 45%.
On the 2026 estimate, 36.0% of Canada's defence spending goes to operations and upkeep and 36.0% to personnel, with 3.1% on infrastructure, leaving 25.0% for equipment, still the smallest of the three big slices, but climbing fast: personnel has fallen from 44.7% of the budget in 2024 to 36.0% in 2026 while equipment has risen from 19.6% to 25.0%.
Equipment share jumps with one-off procurements, so a single strong year is not modernisation. Holding above 20% will take steady recapitalisation, not a one-time bump. Steady recapitalisation is what keeps the eastern-flank allies high.
Canada cleared NATO's 20% equipment guideline for the first time in 2025 and is estimated at 25.0% in 2026, but still ranks 28th of 31 allies.
- Compared with
- The 31 NATO allies that appear in NATO's defence-expenditure tables, on major equipment as a share of defence spending.
- Where Canada sits
- Canada ranks 28th of 31 at 25.0% on the 2026 estimate, above only Italy, Croatia, and Norway. That is less than half Poland's 55.9%.
- Which way it is moving
- Up. That is improving. The share rose from 19.6% in 2024 to 21.97% in 2025 and an estimated 25.0% in 2026, after eleven years in a 10.5–19.6% range.
- What the verdict follows
- Position in the peer set. Canada now meets the 20% floor, but most allies are further above it, so the rise has not moved its rank.
- Data basis
- NATO, Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014–2026), Tables 8a and 8b, published 7 July 2026. Figures for 2025 and 2026 are NATO estimates. Page last reviewed September 2026 · Data current to the 2026 estimate.
Primary sources
- NATO — Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014–2026), Table 8a (equipment and personnel shares) and Table 8b (infrastructure; operations/other). Equipment share for every member on the common basis, 2014–2026e.
- NATO — Defence expenditures and NATO's commitments. Background on the 20% equipment guideline (Wales 2014).
Methodology notes
- Definition. Equipment share is major-equipment expenditure plus the R&D devoted to major equipment, as a percentage of total defence spending, on NATO's common definition. The 20% guideline (Wales 2014) is the modernisation benchmark.
- Comparability. All members on the common NATO basis. 2025–26 are NATO estimates. NATO has 32 members; Iceland maintains no armed forces and does not appear in NATO's defence-expenditure tables, so 31 allies are ranked, each with a reported equipment figure for every year charted. Equipment share is lumpy (a single large procurement can spike one year), so the trend matters more than any single point.
- Companion workbook. The full 2014–2025 series for every member, the 2025 ranking with gap-to-20%, and Canada's four-way spending mix live in Securing_Equipment-Share_Data.xlsx.
