Securing · Metric

Border integrity: entry and exit tracking

Border integrity here means control over two things: who is admitted, and whether departures are accounted for. On the first, Canada's temporary-resident population more than doubled as a share of the country in three years — to the point the government capped it. On the second, Canada built the data to track who leaves but publishes no measure of who overstays, and the Auditor General found tens of thousands of people under removal orders whose whereabouts were unknown. This is a measure of system control and transparency, not a judgement on immigration itself — which is overwhelmingly legal.

Most of the people who come to Canada come legally — through permanent-residence admissions and, increasingly, temporary study and work permits. The integrity question is not whether the inflow is lawful but whether the state controls its scale and can account for who is still here. Two facts frame the answer: the temporary-resident population grew faster than at any time on record before the government moved to rein it in, and Canada — unlike the United States — does not publish how many temporary residents overstay, even though it has collected exit data since 2019.

Temporary residents, Jan 2025
3.0M
7.3% of the population — a record, and more than double the pre-2020 norm (always under 3%).
Permanent residents admitted, 2024
483,390
A record; the 2025 plan cuts the target to 395,000 as the government pulls back.
Under removal order, whereabouts unknown (2019)
34,700
Of ~50,000 enforceable cases, the Auditor General found CBSA did not know where two-thirds were — including ~2,800 with criminal records.

A surge the government had to cap

The clearest sign that the inflow outran control is that Ottawa imposed a limit on it. Temporary residents — students, workers, and their families — rose from 3.6% of the population in 2021 to a record 7.6% by late 2024, more than double the level the share had never previously crossed (it stayed under 3% for the entire period before 2020). The increase blew past the government's own 5% target, which is why, in 2024, it announced a plan to force the share back below 5%. Measured as a share rather than a raw count, the rise can't be explained away by a growing country: the share itself roughly doubled in three years.

Temporary (non-permanent) residents as a share of Canada's population, 2015–2025
pre-2020 ceiling (~3%) government target (<5%)
Source: Statistics Canada demographic estimates (non-permanent residents; population estimates). Bars are plotted from 2021 on the current (2024-revised) basis: 2021–2023 are July 1; 2024 is the 1 October record peak (7.6%); 2025 is 1 January (7.3%). The 2015–2020 years are shown as a band rather than bars: the share was under 3% every year before 2020 (StatCan), but a consistent annual series for those years on the revised methodology is not published, so exact bars are not drawn rather than splice the older (undercounting) method or invent values. The government's stated aim is to reduce temporary residents below 5% of the population.

The number Canada won't publish

This is the part that should trouble Canadians most. Since 2019 on land and 2020 in the air, the Canada Border Services Agency has collected exit records — it knows, traveller by traveller, who has actually left the country. That means the government can calculate how many temporary residents stay past their permits. It does not publish that number — not a rate, not a count, nothing. Overstays are checked only case by case, out of public view. The United States, working from the same kind of exit data, publishes a detailed overstay report every single year.

🇨🇦 Canada — overstay rate
Not published
Holds exit data since 2019 (land) / 2020 (air), but releases no overstay rate or count. Overstays checked case-by-case only.
🇺🇸 United States — overstay rate
Published yearly
FY2023 report: 500,000+ suspected in-country overstays; rates ~0.5% (visa-waiver) to ~3% (visitor) and up to ~8% (some student visas).

The implication is hard to avoid. A government that holds the data but releases no figure leaves the public — and Parliament — unable to judge whether overstaying is a minor problem or a serious one, and unable to hold anyone to account for it. When the measurement plainly exists but the result is withheld, the obvious question is what that result would show, and why a government confident the news was good would choose to keep it from voters. Publishing the number would settle the matter either way; withholding it does not make the problem smaller — only less visible. The silence is itself the finding.

Removals are rising, but small against the backlog

Where the system does act — removing people with no legal right to remain — throughput is climbing: 18,969 removals in 2025, the most since records began in 1993, and the government is funding a push toward 20,000 a year. But that annual flow is modest against the accumulated gap the Auditor General documented in 2020: roughly 50,000 enforceable removal cases as of 2019, of which CBSA could not locate 34,700 people. The chart sets the recent annual removals (a flow) beside that 2019 backlog (a one-time stock) purely to show the scale mismatch — they are different measures and are not added together.

Annual removals vs the 2019 removals backlog (people)
annual removals (flow) 2019 backlog (one-time stock)
Source: CBSA (removals, 2023–2025; 2025 is the most since 1993). Backlog: Auditor General of Canada (2020) — ~50,000 enforceable removal cases as of April 2019, of which 34,700 individuals' whereabouts were unknown. The backlog is a one-time stock shown for scale, not an annual flow; the two series are not spliced.

Findings

Finding 1

The temporary-resident share doubled, then was capped

Temporary residents rose from 3.6% of the population (2021) to a record 7.6% (2024) — more than double, and far above a share that had never topped 3% before 2020. The strongest evidence that the pace was unsustainable is that the government itself moved to force it back below 5%.

Finding 2

Permanent admissions hit records, now trimmed

Permanent-resident admissions reached a record 483,390 in 2024; the 2025–2027 Levels Plan cuts the annual target to 395,000. The inflow was deliberately expanded, then deliberately pulled back — both by policy, not by drift.

Finding 3

Canada has the data but won't publish it

Canada has held exit records since 2019–2020 and can calculate overstays — yet publishes no rate or count, while the US publishes a detailed one yearly (500,000+ suspected overstays in FY2023). Holding the measurement but withholding the result invites the obvious question of what it would show; the size of Canada's overstay population is, by the government's own choice, officially unknown.

Finding 4

Removals can't keep pace with the gap

Removals reached 18,969 in 2025 (most since 1993), but the Auditor General found ~50,000 enforceable cases in 2019 with 34,700 people unlocated. Rising enforcement against a large, partly untraceable backlog is why the verdict is Weak.

Sources & methodology

Primary sources
Methodology notes
  1. What this measures. System control and transparency over admissions and departures — not the desirability or legality of immigration, which is overwhelmingly lawful. The metric is built to be read as a capacity-and-accountability indicator.
  2. Stock vs flow. Temporary-resident counts are a stock (people present at a point in time); permanent-resident admissions and removals are annual flows; the 2019 removals backlog is a one-time stock. These are labelled and never summed. The removals chart juxtaposes a flow and a stock only to convey scale.
  3. Share, not count. The inflow chart uses temporary residents as a share of population so the trend is not an artefact of a growing country; the share roughly doubled in three years and crossed the government's own 5% target.
  4. Reference dates. Temporary-resident shares are July 1 for 2021–2023, the 1 October 2024 record peak, and 1 January 2025; they are point-in-time estimates, not annual averages.
  5. Overstays. Canada has exit data (2019 land, 2020 air) but publishes no overstay rate; the gap is evidenced through removals and the Auditor General's backlog, and the non-publication is treated as a finding. US figures are a transparency benchmark, not a like-for-like comparison.
  6. Companion workbook. The editable series live in Securing_Border-Integrity_Data.xlsx: the temporary-resident share series, PR admissions and removals, and the overstay-transparency comparison.
Page last reviewed June 2026 · Data current to 2025 removals (CBSA) — the latest Statistics Canada non-permanent-resident estimate is 1 January 2025